Horse and TaxesTier 2
at Ascent Boston
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 46 | 36-8-2 | 80.4% | 78.0% | 79.6% | +10.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 81.3% | +18.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 6 | 6-0-0 | 100.0% | 80.0% | 85.0% | +18.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -0.8 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 8 | 7-0-1 | 93.8% | 79.2% | 91.2% | +19.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 9 | 9-0-0 | 100.0% | 84.6% | 89.4% | +18.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.1% | +10.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 74.7% | +13.2 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +12.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.2% | +18.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Horse and Taxes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 12 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
No card differed in at least 3 of the 12 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 6 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 6 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 10 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 10 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 10 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 10 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 10 |